On May 18, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the country’s deputy prime minister and national defense minister, attended a ceremony in eastern Poland related to the launch of a new engine servicing hub for the Polish fleet of Abrams tanks. The event, designed to highlight existing trans-Atlantic defense ties, was overshadowed by Washington’s recent order to halt a planned nine-month U.S. Army rotation to Eastern Europe.

“The United States military that is stationed in Poland, stationed in Europe, gives security guarantees,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said at the event. “On the other hand, we have not only a [U.S.] military presence, but also great, strategic purchases in the United States. And it is difficult to find in the world, not only in Europe, a second country that has invested so heavily in purchases of the best American gear for its own needs.”

Kosiniak-Kamysz referred to Poland’s numerous U.S. weapon purchases from the past years which, in addition to tanks, comprise procurements of fighter jets, helicopters, missiles and rocket launchers.

“More than fifty billion dollars is the sum of the purchases that we are implementing in the United States,” the minister said. “This is all a great investment in the Polish-American alliance”.

Polish officials say that, if the U.S. military presence is to be decreased in Europe, they expect the cuts not to concern the troops who are already deployed to Poland.

“We understand that there is a reorganization of the American military presence in Europe. But this reorganization cannot be made at the cost of the biggest ally of the United States in Europe,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said. “We invest around 15,000 dollars every year for the deployment of each [U.S. soldier], which distinguishes us from other European countries.”

Around 10,000 U.S. soldiers are currently stationed in Poland, the majority of which have been deployed to the country as part of a rotational presence.

The signing ceremony was held on Aug. 13 and was attended by Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and National Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

“Today we are making a milestone with regards to equipping the Polish Armed Forces with the most modern AH-64E Apache attack helicopters,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said during the event, according to a statement released by the Polish ministry.

Under the offset agreements signed as part of the acquisition, Poland’s defense industry will be involved in servicing and upgrading the helicopters, Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

The contract is worth approximately $10 billion. Once the 96 aircraft are delivered, the Polish military will be the Apache’s second largest user in the world, preceded only by the U.S. military, the release said.

Poland has intensified its military modernization efforts following Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022.

Owing to the latest deal, the Polish military will be able to replace its outdated Soviet-designed Mil Mi-2 and Mi-24 helicopters with new aircraft. The contract marks the largest acquisition of Western-made helicopters in Poland’s history.

Under the plan, the aircraft will be deployed to the 1st Aviation Brigade in Inowrocław. Located in the country’s west, the brigade is tasked with providing aerial support to the Polish land forces.

The foreign military sale to Poland was approved by the U.S. State Department on Aug. 21, 2023. In a statement, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said that, in addition to 96 helicopters and related gear and services, Poland aims to secure a wide range of weapon systems.

These include 1,844 AGM-114R2 Hellfire missiles, 460 AGM-179A Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles and 508 Stinger 92K Block I missiles, among others, according to the agency.

The move comes as analysts are seeing Moscow’s rising pressure on Minsk to increase the satellite nation’s involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Lukashenko made the announcement during the authoritarian leader’s meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during the latter’s Dec. 19 visit to Minsk.

“Today, we put on combat duty the S-400 complex, which you handed over to Belarus, and, most importantly, the Iskander complex, which you also, having promised it six months ago, handed over to us,” Lukashenko said, as quoted in a statement released by the Russian president’s office.

Lukashenko has long called on the Kremlin to provide his regime with Iskander missile systems. This would allow the Belarusian armed forces to expand their attack range from about 300 km (186 miles) to 500 km (311 miles), he has argued.

The distance between Minsk and Warsaw, the capital of NATO member state Poland, which has maintained strained ties with Belarus, is about 546 km (339 miles).

Last February, the Belarusian government organized a referendum which enabled the authorities to modify the constitution’s article describing the nation as a “nuclear-free zone” and a “neutral” state. The vote, which international organizations have broadly dismissed as rigged, allows Russia to deploy additional nuclear weapons along NATO’s eastern flank.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, said in a recent analysis that “Lukashenko uses the rhetoric of defending Belarusian borders against the West and NATO in an effort to avoid participating in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Lukashenko had used similar hints about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus on Feb. 17 in the context of claimed Western aggression, analysts wrote.

The announcement came shortly after his British counterpart Boris Johnson unveiled plans to supply an undisclosed number of Challenger 2 tanks to Poland to “backfill” the operational needs of its military.

“We have received gap fillers, elements of our armament,” Mateusz Morawiecki said during an interview with local news channel Polsat News, referring to weapons the U.S. and the U.K. have provided to Poland since the war began. “Today, our weapons are used to defend our independence, but 500 kilometers from the Polish border.”

Asked about how many T-72s were delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces, Morawiecki said “when the time comes, we will provide this” information.

In 2019, Poland’s Defence Ministry signed a contract with a consortium of local companies, led by state-run defense giant PGZ, to upgrade up to 318 tanks to the T-72M1 version.

Earlier this month, Poland signed a deal worth about $4.75 billion to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks from the U.S.

The Polish prime minister also referred to an earlier plan by Warsaw to supply Soviet-designed Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. The initiative was eventually scrapped, and Morawiecki said Ukraine was no longer seeking delivery of such aircraft by Poland.

“They are proven vehicles that the U.S. Army has used for many years and on many foreign missions,” Błaszczak said in a tweet.

The forthcoming procurement is the latest in a series of purchases of American military gear by the Polish ministry. Last July, Błaszczak announced that Poland will buy 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks from the U.S. in a bid to match the armored technical capacities of its neighbor Russia.

Under the plan, the Cougars are to be delivered to the Polish Armed Forces by the end of 2022 “owing to an accelerated procedure,” according to the minister.

“The contract also covers a logistics and training package,” Błaszczak said.

The value of the deal was not disclosed.

The Cougar’s four-wheel-drive variant is enabled to transport a crew of six, and it has been used by the U.S. Marine Corps since 2004, according to data from General Dynamics Land Systems.

The two countries “continue to develop the plan to bolster Polish–United States military ties and United States defense and deterrence capabilities in Poland. These capabilities presently include approximately 4,500 rotational United States military personnel. As noted, this enduring presence is expected to grow by approximately 1,000 additional United States military personnel in the near term,” according to the declaration.

The partners have determined six locations for this designed enhanced military presence. Poznań, in western Poland, is to host the Division Headquarters and the U.S. Army area support group. Drawsko Pomorskie, in the country’s northwest, will host the primary Combat Training Center for joint use by the Polish and U.S. Armed Forces. Wrocław-Strachowice, in southwestern Poland, is to host the U.S. Air Force aerial port of debarkation, and Łask, in the country’s central part, will host the U.S. Air Force remotely piloted aircraft squadron. Powidz, in western Poland, is to host a combat aviation brigade, a combat sustainment support battalion, and a special operations forces facility, while Lubliniec, in the country’s south, will host a special operations forces facility, according to the document.

Warsaw and Washington are also in dialogue about “the most suitable location in Poland for an armored brigade combat team,” the declaration says.

Warsaw has been seeking a permanent U.S. military presence in Poland, dubbed “Fort Trump,” amid rising security concerns over Russian activities in the region. As part of these efforts, the Polish government offered to earmark at least $2 billion toward the project under which the U.S. would establish a military base in the country.

Last June, Duda met with Trump in Washington to discuss the initiative and sign a joint declaration on defense cooperation regarding U.S. force posture in Poland.

Following an April 28 meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in Washington, Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said he was “an optimist regarding an increase of U.S. military presence in Poland.”

“The decisions on this matter are moving in a good direction,” Blaszczak said, as quoted in a ministry statement.

The document, titled “Proposal for a U.S. Permanent Presence in Poland,” was obtained by local news site Onet.pl, which first broke the news. It was distributed to U.S. government institutions, Congress and some of the leading U.S. think tanks, according to information obtained from the ministry.

The ministry did not officially release the document; however, in a statement issued to local journalists, it said it was not classified and was developed “as part of the activities performed to deepen [Poland’s] defense cooperation with the U.S., including increasing the presence of U.S. forces in Poland.”

“The Government of Poland will offer significant funding for this action … as it is important to share the burden of defense spending, make the decision more cost-effective for the U.S. Government, and allay any concerns for Congress in uncertain budgetary times,” the document states.

“This proposal seems rational because the U.S. administration has been sending signals that it wants its European allies to take over a larger share of the financial burden for NATO’s strengthened presence in this part of Europe,” Tomasz Smura, the head of the research office of the Warsaw-based think tank Casimir Pulaski Foundation, told Defense News.

“The Polish side aims to convince the U.S. that at least the nonpolitical costs of such a move would be minimized. This document provides some very general information, and it outlines the infrastructural costs that would be paid for by Warsaw. Some of these costs would be covered by funds acquired from the European Union and NATO.”

The Russian factor

The move is likely to trigger a bellicose reaction by Russia, which has opposed various initiatives to expand U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe. In 2014, Moscow launched a military intervention in Poland’s neighbor Ukraine. Since then, Russia has occupied parts of the country, including the Crimean Peninsula.

As a result, numerous member states from the region have called on NATO to deploy additional troops to Eastern Europe amid increased concern over potential Russian aggression.

Poland has also intensified efforts to upgrade its defense capabilities. On March 28, Warsaw signed a letter of offer and acceptance with the U.S. to acquire Raytheon’s medium-range Patriot system. The acquisition, developed under the Wisla program, is worth $4.75 billion, according to the ministry. The purchase will consume a large portion of the country’s military expenditure, as for 2018, the ministry forecasts defense spending of 41.5 billion zloty (U.S. $11.2 billion).

Łukasz Kister, an independent security analyst with the Jagiellonian Institute, a Warsaw-based think tank, told Defense News it is good that Poland’s authorities are willing to safeguard Poland’s security by various means, but that co-financing the deployment of U.S. troops on Polish soil could jeopardize the country’s military modernization program.

“The proposal to pay the U.S. for ensuring our security raises doubts whether we will be able to finance the modernization of our own armed forces,” Kister said. “Outsourcing our security could deprive Poland of the necessary funds for various programs to upgrade our military capacities.”

According to the analyst, Polish authorities should put emphasis on industrial cooperation between U.S. and Polish defense manufacturers and ensure the transfer of knowledge to local plants.

“Poland cannot afford highly offensive military capabilities, and the U.S. is definitely a key partner with whom we should cooperate. But this cooperation should be placed at a different level. We should pay the U.S. for top technologies, know-how, gear and training, and not for the deployment of troops,” Kister said.

“The funds that are to be spent on the Patriot contract should also benefit Poland, providing training to Polish soldiers, allowing local plants to perform maintenance and overhaul works on this gear, and providing the Polish industry with know-how. This could also be beneficial to the U.S. manufacturer, as it would have an industrial outpost in Europe, which could service and repair this equipment.”